January 29, 2026
RED FM News Desk
The Conservative Party of Canada begins its national convention in Calgary on Thursday, with party members set to weigh in on the leadership of Pierre Poilievre in a pivotal confidence vote.
While Poilievre is widely expected to survive the review, political observers say a narrow win may not be enough to fully secure his position. Political strategist Jamie Ellerton told The Big Story podcast that the leader will need well above the minimum threshold to emerge politically strengthened.
“This isn’t just about clearing 50 per cent,” Ellerton said, noting that perceptions matter as much as the formal rules. “To truly put the issue to rest, Poilievre likely needs support in the high 60 per cent range or more.”
One factor working in Poilievre’s favour, according to Ellerton, is the absence of a clear internal challenger. No organized movement has emerged within the party to rally behind an alternative leader, reducing immediate pressure on Poilievre’s leadership.
The Conservatives last held a mandatory leadership review in 2005, following Stephen Harper’s defeat in the 2004 federal election. Harper secured 84 per cent support at the time and later went on to serve as prime minister from 2006 to 2015.
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